This is my favorite time in college football betting... starting just after the third week.
Plays
ARKANSAS STATE -4 Tulsa
GEORGIA TECH -4 Clemson
Leans
MISSOURI -19' mtsu
uconn -25' BUFFALO
OHIO STATE -15' bowling green
ILLINOIS -4' california
lou tech +10' FRESNO
TOLEDO +10' pittsburg
ucla +18' OKLAHOMA
UNLV pk hawaii
tennessee +3 FLORIDA
PENN STATE -24' kent
BOSTON COLLEGE +12' miami fl
This is my favorite play this week. Coach Steve Roberts at Ark St has shown improvement each year since his arrival. This team had a decent defense last year and returns ten on that side of the ball. They emphasize fundementals and prefer the run although they can pass effectively at this level if the situation dictates... to beat them you typically have to out rush them. Since Tulsa gave up large ground numbers to Minn and Arkansas you have to think Ark St will put up reasonable ground numbers in this one. During their opener at Texas A&M Ark St yielded only one sustained TD drive and were out gained by just 49 yards for the game... they were solidly in this game until A&M got the ball on the Ark St 17 yard line and achieved their first TD. Last year Ark St beat Tulsa at home 21-19 where they overcame a couple key turnovers that kept the score closer than it would have been otherwise... in that game they out rushed Tulsa 295-51. This game is a designated conference game for Ark State... with Ark State you get an improving program that is fundementally sound, the better defense, the better offense (yea they can pass some if they have to!), a game that matters to them, against a new coach, new QB and the rest of the bag of crap they call Tulsa football.
Georgia Tech has played better than expected to start this year. I had a small amount on the ML against Florida State and it hurt to watch the end of that one... Clemson, IMO, has yet to put up any meaningful points this year... goosed at home by Georgia they smoked MTSU but I live here in Murfreesboro, TN and can tell you MTSU's coach has never wasted an athelete on the defensive side of the ball since he has been there. Clemson has failed to cover their last eight in a row against .500 or better teams going back through last year. These teams are more than four points apart especially with Georgia Tech at home.
The prevous two games are decent plays... the following are leans.
MTSU has a horrible defense and a waning offense. McCullum (sp) had some offensive talent in 2001 with no defense and blew it... less offense in 2002 no defense and really blew it... is down to the tank all around in 2003... Georgia could have put more on them but why? Clemson wanted to make a statement and did! Teams with reasonable talent that want to make a statement should find it smooth sailing against this MTSU team...
UConn is a want-to-be program (and I like these type teams to pour on the points when they get the opportunity). This is a sandwich game for them but their coaching does not seem to pull off the dogs... I liked this game somewhat to begin with but when I seen that Buffalo gave up over 600 yards to a DivII school last week it made this a solid lean. I played against UConn last week but think they should put up some numbers in this one.
Ohio State has been squeaking by... and BG with a nice win over Purdue... but time for a statement here by Ohio State. BG faced only three +.500 teams last year in N.Ill, S. Fla, and Toledo losing by 9, 22, and 18 respectively... last year they faced only one defense that allowed under 25 ppg at S. Fla and lost, as stated, by 22... their road win over Purdue was impressive (although I think Purdue may be a little over rated)... that Purdue victory has helped this line and has to have Ohio State coaching focused here... slight lean to Ohio State.
Cal has looked OK at times... but they appear to wear down late a little against physical teams. Illinois no monster but I think they will bang hard at home... until Cal takes one on the road as well as shows they can achieve late in the game I have to lean to Ill here...
Lou Tech and Fresno simply do not look like they are double digits apart... what am I missing on this line?
Pittsburg not really tested so far... and really did not like physical defense on the road last year... if I recall correctly they really did not run off on anyone (on the road) that could play reasonable defense... very hard to run off and leave Toledo especially on their court... their coaching will pull out the stops and find a way to have a shot late in most cases.
18' looks like a lot between UCLA and Oklahoma... jury still out on UCLA but feel their defense may keep them in this one but they are really kinda untested at this level... slight lean to UCLA.
UNLV clearly inconsistant, but they have a couple quality wins and I like the way their QB reads (although they stubbed their toe with Kansas... who seems to be improved)... will lean with them at home.
Think I get the better running game, better defense, and better coach in the Tennessee game. I can't make that statement about many coaches Tennessee faces
Penn State needs a statement... and JoPa has seen one-man-shows before... Penn State smoked weak defenses at home last year and this Kent defense is pitiful... Penn State is slow and certainly no contender but if they are going to show out offensively in any game this year it will probably be this one (several games before DiNardo comes to town).
I have not been that impressed with Miami just yet... Florida (although somewhat lucky) had them on the ropes... I see this as their biggest test thus far and am willing to take the points with a capable home team.
Once again light'em up...
Good luck,
Hogjawl
Plays
ARKANSAS STATE -4 Tulsa
GEORGIA TECH -4 Clemson
Leans
MISSOURI -19' mtsu
uconn -25' BUFFALO
OHIO STATE -15' bowling green
ILLINOIS -4' california
lou tech +10' FRESNO
TOLEDO +10' pittsburg
ucla +18' OKLAHOMA
UNLV pk hawaii
tennessee +3 FLORIDA
PENN STATE -24' kent
BOSTON COLLEGE +12' miami fl
This is my favorite play this week. Coach Steve Roberts at Ark St has shown improvement each year since his arrival. This team had a decent defense last year and returns ten on that side of the ball. They emphasize fundementals and prefer the run although they can pass effectively at this level if the situation dictates... to beat them you typically have to out rush them. Since Tulsa gave up large ground numbers to Minn and Arkansas you have to think Ark St will put up reasonable ground numbers in this one. During their opener at Texas A&M Ark St yielded only one sustained TD drive and were out gained by just 49 yards for the game... they were solidly in this game until A&M got the ball on the Ark St 17 yard line and achieved their first TD. Last year Ark St beat Tulsa at home 21-19 where they overcame a couple key turnovers that kept the score closer than it would have been otherwise... in that game they out rushed Tulsa 295-51. This game is a designated conference game for Ark State... with Ark State you get an improving program that is fundementally sound, the better defense, the better offense (yea they can pass some if they have to!), a game that matters to them, against a new coach, new QB and the rest of the bag of crap they call Tulsa football.
Georgia Tech has played better than expected to start this year. I had a small amount on the ML against Florida State and it hurt to watch the end of that one... Clemson, IMO, has yet to put up any meaningful points this year... goosed at home by Georgia they smoked MTSU but I live here in Murfreesboro, TN and can tell you MTSU's coach has never wasted an athelete on the defensive side of the ball since he has been there. Clemson has failed to cover their last eight in a row against .500 or better teams going back through last year. These teams are more than four points apart especially with Georgia Tech at home.
The prevous two games are decent plays... the following are leans.
MTSU has a horrible defense and a waning offense. McCullum (sp) had some offensive talent in 2001 with no defense and blew it... less offense in 2002 no defense and really blew it... is down to the tank all around in 2003... Georgia could have put more on them but why? Clemson wanted to make a statement and did! Teams with reasonable talent that want to make a statement should find it smooth sailing against this MTSU team...
UConn is a want-to-be program (and I like these type teams to pour on the points when they get the opportunity). This is a sandwich game for them but their coaching does not seem to pull off the dogs... I liked this game somewhat to begin with but when I seen that Buffalo gave up over 600 yards to a DivII school last week it made this a solid lean. I played against UConn last week but think they should put up some numbers in this one.
Ohio State has been squeaking by... and BG with a nice win over Purdue... but time for a statement here by Ohio State. BG faced only three +.500 teams last year in N.Ill, S. Fla, and Toledo losing by 9, 22, and 18 respectively... last year they faced only one defense that allowed under 25 ppg at S. Fla and lost, as stated, by 22... their road win over Purdue was impressive (although I think Purdue may be a little over rated)... that Purdue victory has helped this line and has to have Ohio State coaching focused here... slight lean to Ohio State.
Cal has looked OK at times... but they appear to wear down late a little against physical teams. Illinois no monster but I think they will bang hard at home... until Cal takes one on the road as well as shows they can achieve late in the game I have to lean to Ill here...
Lou Tech and Fresno simply do not look like they are double digits apart... what am I missing on this line?
Pittsburg not really tested so far... and really did not like physical defense on the road last year... if I recall correctly they really did not run off on anyone (on the road) that could play reasonable defense... very hard to run off and leave Toledo especially on their court... their coaching will pull out the stops and find a way to have a shot late in most cases.
18' looks like a lot between UCLA and Oklahoma... jury still out on UCLA but feel their defense may keep them in this one but they are really kinda untested at this level... slight lean to UCLA.
UNLV clearly inconsistant, but they have a couple quality wins and I like the way their QB reads (although they stubbed their toe with Kansas... who seems to be improved)... will lean with them at home.
Think I get the better running game, better defense, and better coach in the Tennessee game. I can't make that statement about many coaches Tennessee faces
Penn State needs a statement... and JoPa has seen one-man-shows before... Penn State smoked weak defenses at home last year and this Kent defense is pitiful... Penn State is slow and certainly no contender but if they are going to show out offensively in any game this year it will probably be this one (several games before DiNardo comes to town).
I have not been that impressed with Miami just yet... Florida (although somewhat lucky) had them on the ropes... I see this as their biggest test thus far and am willing to take the points with a capable home team.
Once again light'em up...
Good luck,
Hogjawl
